FUTURIST SKILLS, TOOLS, & INFORMATION

FORECASTING ASSUMPTIONS

by Earl C. Joseph, Walden University Professor
A publication of the Minnesota Futurists

There are many different methods for forecasting possible alternative futures. Each is based upon some explicit philosophical belief system grounded upon theoretical concepts for shaping the future. Change is the essence of emerging and developing futures. Thus, forecasting attempts to predict possible outcomes of change.

General Forecasting Philosophies:

ð Decisions and actions cause change in the future.

ð Since a decision is a statement that assumes, from some view point, that if it is followed a ãbetter future will ensue, it therefore is a forecast about that future.

ð Any decision or action will have both positive and negative impacts on certain and usually different aspects of the future imposed by the decision.

ð The future can be forecasted, anticipated, created, designed, planned, shaped, steered, managed, controlled, scheduled, evolved, changed, made better or worse, and impacted÷but not totally.

ð Forecasts prophesy ãwhat could be,ä whereas predictions attempt to specify ãwhat will beä in the future.

ð All change has consequences for the future and impacts the future.

ð A forecasted future can be avoided or brought on sooner through decisions and actions resulting from its forecast.

ð Self-fulfilling forecasts result if their implied actions and decisions are successful.

ð Forecasts, when used strategically, establish goals to achieve or futures to avoid.

ð There is no single forecasting method/technique that can provide, by itself, good enough information about a possible future to base decisions upon it. Therefore, the use of only one forecasting technique will usually provide erroneous information about the future being studied.

ð Forecasts can identify goals to anticipate and to attain.

Trend Analysis Forecasting Assumptions:

ð Trend analysis identifies and maps past and present experience along the path of change traveled, and when extrapolated, forecasts a likely heading for the future.

ð Trend forecasts are based upon the assumption that the future will unfold at about the same rate of change as it did in the past.

ð Trend forecasts provide the most likely path for the short-range future they prophesy (because of the ãflywheelä impact of recent decisions and actions).

ð Trend forecasts most often give a least likely prediction for the long-range future they depict (because other factors and other past forces steer future change).

ð Trend forecasts provide a ãyardstick of changeä for measuring future change (better than taking a ãsnapshot of todayä as the extrapolated yardstick) for steering our intuition and decision-making efforts.

Delphi Forecasting Assumptions:

ð Delphi forecasts are based upon the assumption that consensus among experts, since they are aware of where resources and efforts are being expended, means that their opinion about futures in their areas of expertise will be well grounded in current reality.

ð Delphi analysis is the best tool available for forecasting possible future breakthroughs.

Emerging Issues Forecasting Assumptions:

ð Emerging issues forecasting identifies possible futures, threats or opportunities of concern to anticipate in order to take appropriate strategic actions.

ð Issues once acted upon cause both positive and negative change.

ð Issues management, a systematic process for dealing with forecasts of emerging issues, is a ãlistening-post functionä for identifying possible future change to feed strategic planning efforts, and an ãanticipator functionä for identifying reasons to change.

Future Alternatives Forecasting Assumptions:

ð Forecasts of alternative futures provide options about which future to plan, design and develop through strategic intervention and the allocation of resources in attempts to bring about the chosen future.

ð Alternative forecasts of possible futures provide a framework of ãWhat ifä possible futures to investigate, analyze and assess their possible impacts, consequences and outcomes before choosing a future to plan and manage into being.

Forces-of-Change Forecasting Assumptions:

ð Change is a result of force drivers causing that change; forces-of-change forecasting is necessary to determine how trends will or could be steered into the future.