TURIST SKILLS, TOOLS, & INFORMATION

INTRODUCTION TO FORECASTING

by Earl C. Joseph, Walden University Professor
A publication of the Minnesota Futurists

"The future of the past is in the future. The future of the present is in the past.  The future of the future is in the present." (John McHale, 1969)

 Forecasting plays a major role in most of our activities and in all we do concerning the future. It is a branch of the anticipatory sciences used for identifying and projecting alternative possible futures. 

Forecasting opens menu windows onto futures. It is a conduit leading to plans for the development of ãbetterä futures. Forecasted visions of possible futures open our freedom of choice over which future to encourage or discourage.

In our fast-paced, rapidly changing world, the futures that we will experience will tend to be vastly different from our present reality in a growing number of ways. Furthermore, because of constant development of new knowledge and advances in the scientific (and ensuing technological advances), sociological, political, economic, and business arenas, our global society has an ever increasing ability to shape (for better or worse) the futures we will eventually achieve.

As a result, society and each institution in it finds that more fore knowledge about possible futures and the consequences of todayâs decisions and actions is required. Thus, it is increasingly imperative that we have better forecasting tools and that we apply them in responsible ways. It is more and more important to forecast, ahead of time, with longer lead times, the possible futures implied by the changes wrought by this new knowledge generation. To these ends, forecasting has become an essential tool for all participants in society to use in their attempts to decide, plan, design, steer, manage, implement, and control change by identifying preferable futures with forecasts.

 In general terms, a forecast is simply a statement, based upon some criteria, concerning the future condition of something. A major purpose of forecasting is to give us choice over which future, either the trend path we are on, or an alternative, to plan, design, create, and to back with our resources. 

Forecasting aids in identifying which futures to bring into fruition (the preferables) and which to forestall, or attempt to eliminate (the undesirables). Furthermore, forecasts are useful in assisting our intuitions about our plans, outlooks, investments, and so on, whenever we would like to have a better idea of the possible or most probable outcome. We want information from forecasts relative to:

ð identifying:

> possible futures
> probable futures
> preferable futures

ð providing a basis for understanding the process and dynamics of change;
ð providing notions of where change may take us into the future;
ð providing a systematic methodology, based upon a set of supportive assumptions, for the discovery of possible futures.

Since we know that individuals and society in general have the means and knowledge to shape major elements of our future, to grow new opportunities as well to set in motion means for avoiding or lessening the impact of negative future threats, forecasting again becomes an increasingly important tool for all of us to understand and use.

Forecasting has many uses, some of which are to:

ð identify the trend path we are traveling into the future;

ð identify alternative possible futures (alternatives to the trends);

ð provide views of possible futures;

ð raise awareness of possible futures so that we have choice over which future we support;

ð generate ãfuture historiesä that we can study to determine our role in shaping them before they become a reality;

ð provide information about possible futures so that realistic planning can occur;

ð provide information on possible futures to aid decision-making and planning;

ð justify the decisions and plans we make;

ð discover possible breakthroughs;

ð discover possible life, societal, scientific, political, social, technological, and institutional future turning points or paradigm shifts;

ð track evolving change and advances;

ð provide managers with information for choosing their organizationâs vision, mission, purpose, goals, objectives, strategies, plans, and tactics;

ð provide information on possible futures for assessment relative to their possible future impacts and consequences .

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